In April, a National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) entitled “Trends in Global Terrorism: Implications for the United States” was published. An NIE is a coordinated summation of the judgments of sixteen US Intelligence agencies, which is then approved by the Director of National Intelligence. This means it represents a unified assessment of a certain issue pertaining to national security.
NIEs are literally estimates which show a general trend in the current state of affairs in relation to the past. They tend to shy away from being strictly predictions, and usually serve more of an informational role with suggestions for the future. This NIE was partially declassified on September 26th by President Bush.
This might not seem like a rarity, but it truly is. Only about twenty of these reports are made a year, and according to the intelligence sources of CNN and FOX News, only three or four such reports have been partially declassified in the past fifteen to twenty years.
There has been a lot of debate on both sides about the details of the report and the reasons for President Bush to release part of the details of this report. The first major point of the release is that our counter-terrorism efforts have crippled the leadership of al-Qa’ida, and that it is no longer as centralized of an organization as it once was.
Al-Qa’ida is believed to pose the largest threat to the Homeland and U.S. foreign interests, and the global Jihadist movement, which includes al-Qa’ida and other terrorist groups, is spreading and slowly adapting to our counter-terrorism efforts. All our intelligence agencies, foreign and domestic, report that those identifying themselves as Jihadist are growing in number and geographical diversity.
While the report tells us that the Jihadist movement is gaining support, it also states that the movement lacks a central authority with a unified global network or strategy. New cells continue to grow and their lack of a central base will make them harder to root out. Threats from these kinds of groups will continue to grow and our foreign policy and actions are likely to change in a way that includes the concept of large threats from these groups in our country and abroad. These groups often view Europe as a good way to attack Western interests, as exhibited by the March 11, 2004 bombing in Madrid and in London on July 7, 2005.
The current Iraq conflict and the Iraq jihad serve as inspiration to new Jihadists, a catalyst for resentment towards the U.S. which is fueled by the feeling of success their movement is causing in terms of American causalities and fading support. The failure to capture Bin Ladin and al-Zarqawi continues to promulgate the ideology and the vision of victory for new Jihadists.
Three other underlying factors for the spread of the Jihadist movement are given: (1) a fear of Western dominance and thus a feeling of being humiliated and powerless; (2) the slow development of political, economic and social reforms of “Muslim majority nations”; (3) a general and pervasive anti-U.S. sentiment among most Muslims. These are generalizations made by the report to give an overview- it is information on a scale that encompasses too much for exceptions to be presented; they are meant to inform, not offend.
The report presents us with a few holes in the Jihadists’ armor. The first is that the conservative interpretation of a shari’a based government, is unpopular with the majority of Muslims. This idea is too much of a narrow, conservative path, and presenting this would most likely cause a divide between the Jihadists and their audience. Many Muslim clerics have spoken out and condemned acts of violence of the Jihadist nature. These clerics have been preaching political activism through the system itself via peaceful and meaningful routes. This mainstream Muslim ideology, if presented right, could prove to a powerful wedge. Some of this will be represented through democratic elections, which will simultaneously remove some of the Jihadist element from the public eye and present the Jihadists with new opportunities to exploit.
Sunni extremist organizations, such as Jemaah Islamiya, are also mentioned because they are beginning to expand their territories. They are not viewed to be as great a threat as the al-Qa’ida networks, but they will have a great variation in threat to our foreign and domestic interests, so it is a hard threat to judge.
The report states that improvised roadside bombings and suicide bombings will tend to be the most likely means of attack. Urban conflicts and counter attacks are also very likely. Former insurgents in Iraq are likely leaders of such conflicts and training for explosives. Groups will also be very inclined to continue kidnapping civilians. Even though Iran and Syria are considered to be the largest state sponsors of such activities, other states will either offer some support or be unable to prevent these kinds of attacks. This includes any non-Jihadist organizations that have an anti-US sentiment. We could start seeing these tactics used by any type of organization if they continue to prove successful.
The last point presented is that it is very likely for any and all of these groups to use the internet, and increasing shift functions to the internet for all aspects of their of communication and finance. All news stations talk of increased insurgents and Jihadist actions. Every general that comes on TV, or puts out a press release, talks about an increase in resentment towards their troops all across the Middle East. Pakistan and Israel are at each other like dogs, and President Bush’s hosting of President Musharraf and the Afghan leader Hamid Karzai did not seem to show us much ease in that tension.
So in September, before a big series of elections, President Bush has pulled out what some believe is a trump card. He took a classified report and gave it to the public. In one fell swoop, he showed that the government isn’t going to hide every piece of information they collect or try to get off your hard drive. The report itself is top notch, every intelligence leader puts his stamp on these. So not only have we just been told that al-Qa’ida is on the decline and decentralized, but we’re also being told this by the top dogs. This report presents us with a skewed view of both sides while also alluding to increase of anti-US sentiment, but quietly reminding us all the while that this increase is not as big a threat and is not as organized as it could have been if we would have not stepped in. It treats Iraq interestingly, because it shows that the idea of Iraq is a fuel to the fire of Jihadist thought, but also repeats that the majority of Muslims could easily be turned from this ideal.
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